The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Publisher: Wiley

May 19, 2014 - Now, The Black Swan isn't the worst book in the history of civilization, and this isn't the kind of cutesy blog where I follow that up with "At least it's not Atlas Shrugged LMAO". Low probability events with potentially high impact are ibecoming more frequent, but paradoxically, have lower than expected impacts. The realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology; The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) Be it PBX fraud or mobile fraud, the end consumer will need to pay the bill at the end. May 18, 2008 - A black swan event, loosely described, is an occurrence that: 1) is structurally possible within a system, 2) is of very low probability within that system, but which 3) should it take place has a disproportionate impact upon the systemic order. So this eurodollar creation is made outside the real domestic economy, and therefore has no immediate effect on domestic money supply and prices at the end of the money chain. You're right, but the probability is smaller than the entire non-barbell going to zero, according to Taleb. I've seen some people Ironically many people who end up following this advice are exposing themselves to unexpected negative surprises (black swans). But the effect is there, and the smart money closer to the financial system sees it coming. Feb 13, 2013 - Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a great writer and his first two popular books, Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, exposed a lot of people to new ideas. Aug 11, 2010 - I suspect that there are only a handful of people in the world who are capable of fully understanding and appreciating Elie Ayache's The Blank Swan: The End of Probability (Wiley, 2010). Jan 19, 2011 - Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but quite simply, the impact catching that Black Swan lightning in a bottle is so disproportionate to what you lose by taking a few unsuccessful lost cost shots to nab it, that it's a good bet from a simple leverage So Taleb kinda messes with the definition for his own purposes there (not that I don't disagree with point predictions in complex systems and distribution choices and many other aspects of applied probability theory he is popularizing). The Black Swan event, or USSSA event, is then detected by understanding the anomalies between the normal predictable traffic to the other wise fraud. Feb 6, 2013 - Taleb is famous not only for being a retired options trader, but also for his books, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, and Antifragile: Things That On one end of the continuum are things Taleb describes as fragile — such as glass. Something "nontechnical readers" may just be best poised to sniff out, in addition to the fact that he is telling you not to read the chapter: Taleb is saying, in essence (pretend that footnote has a double asterisk at the end): "Forget everything you heard in college statistics or probability theory. Near to the financial community profess loudly that “No one could have known” that such massive losses from collateralized debt obligations were possible, or that credit spreads could widen and stay widened for months on end. Dec 4, 2011 - Gold, Eurodollars, and the Black Swan That Will Devour the US Futures and Derivatives Markets :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.